Odds are, Ford CEO Jim Farley and Common Motors CEO Mary Barra have both already voted within the election or will on Tuesday. Fortunately, although, now we have completely no concept who which candidate they really help. Your guess is about nearly as good as mine. Tesla CEO Elon Musk, however, has made it abundantly clear that he’s all-in for Trump. And he doesn’t simply need Trump to win — he’s spending hundreds of thousands and actively campaigning on his behalf. If Trump wins, Musk and his corporations will completely profit, however what occurs if the convicted felon loses?
It definitely isn’t unlawful or unprecedented for a billionaire CEO to make use of their cash and affect in an try and sway the election in favor of their most popular candidate, and but, Musk should discover himself in authorized hassle over his political motion committee’s potential violation of human trafficking legal guidelines, the potential mendacity on his immigration paperwork and his buddy-buddy relationship with enemy dictator Vladimir Putin. That’s not even the entire checklist, only a handful of probably the most quick points that deserve investigating.
Nonetheless, we don’t understand how aggressively the Harris administration would go after Musk, particularly within the months instantly following her inauguration. In any case, there’s an opportunity that post-election and post-inauguration right-wing violence will trigger greater than its fair proportion of distractions. They’re already burning poll bins, so there’s no motive to consider they’ll take a Trump loss peacefully. No matter what any investigation concludes, although, the wheels of justice flip slowly, and he in all probability gained’t face any precise penalties for some time, if he ever does.
You can also’t neglect about that entire two-tiered justice system now we have that appears particularly geared towards conserving the wealthy out of jail. If his cozy little nighttime chats with Putin weren’t sufficient to stop the Pentagon from utilizing SpaceX to launch a community of spy satellites, it’s onerous to have a lot religion that the Harris administration gained’t proceed her predecessor’s coverage of merely letting him get away with all the pieces.
Whether or not it’s for present or one thing he really believes, Musk’s conduct on Twitter these days definitely suggests he isn’t assured his standing because the richest individual on the planet will preserve him protected. Along with all his different rubbish tweets, Musk can also be spreading the concept that Democrats plan to destroy him, and in his interview with TV dinner belief fund child Tucker Carlson, mentioned he’s fucked if Trump loses. Why he’s threatening me with time, I don’t know, however it in all probability has one thing to do with all of the ketamine.
If Musk does go down, although, that will doubtless be unhealthy information for each firm he runs however particularly Tesla because it’s publicly traded. Its worth has been fully divorced from its merchandise and income for years now, and with Musk now not on the helm, it’s onerous to think about buyers wouldn’t flee. Tesla is Elon, and Elon is Tesla, in spite of everything.
What’s way more fascinating to contemplate is what is going to occur to Tesla if we assume the established order is generally right here to remain. In a state of affairs the place Trump loses, and Musk tries to return to being his pre-Twitter-takeover self, it’s nonetheless simple to see a number of potential clients deciding they don’t need to give their cash to somebody so unapologetically right-wing. I imply, he’s already telling individuals he plans to crash the economic system when he guts the federal authorities like a non-public fairness CEO who simply acquired a media firm from Univision. Common individuals don’t have a tendency to love guys like that.
For just about another electrical automaker, a Harris win could be excellent news. She’s going to doubtless proceed to supply tax credit for EV purchases and desires to develop the EV trade within the U.S. She’ll spend money on clear vitality and can presumably proceed the carbon credit score program that advantages electrical automakers, together with Tesla. The bar isn’t excessive, however you’ll be able to anticipate Harris to be probably the most pro-EV president in historical past. On paper, Tesla’s CEO must be all about that, particularly with its U.S. factories giving it a bonus over automakers that construct their EVs abroad.
The draw back for Tesla is that Harris’s insurance policies will assist the EV trade as a complete, not Tesla particularly. If different automakers’ EV gross sales enhance, that’s solely going to harm Tesla’s market share and can doubtless affect its gross sales, as nicely. What Tesla does have is its Supercharger community, which might nonetheless be a useful asset that generates income even when each Tesla manufacturing unit magically disappeared in a single day.
By the tip of the second Harris administration, different networks might have caught up, however not less than within the close to future, you’ll be able to’t overlook how necessary the Supercharger community is as the corporate faces an uphill battle towards competitors that solely will get harder each time a brand new EV goes on sale. The truth that Tesla’s lineup is both historic or the Cybertruck definitely doesn’t assist issues, both.
After all, Musk defenders will let you know automotive gross sales don’t matter as a result of Tesla is now an AI/robotics firm, however it’s additionally simple to see buyers getting spooked and attempting to place their cash someplace safer than Tesla as they alter their technique based mostly on the course they consider Harris will take the nation. It’s additionally no secret that Tesla is a meme inventory and has been for a very long time. There could also be a couple of credulous rubes who stick round and actually consider Tesla is about to “clear up autonomy,” however come late January, what number of of these will nonetheless be round?
If buyers get spooked, issues may in a short time go from unhealthy to worse for Musk and Tesla. SpaceX is effective by way of authorities contracts, however it isn’t a publicly traded firm he can use to fund his way of life. He wants Tesla to stay overvalued to maintain this entire factor going, and some huge buyers exiting might be the falling domino that finally brings all of it down. If the inventory worth is predicated on vibes anyway, unhealthy vibes may simply snowball right into a state of affairs the place everybody’s determined to leap ship earlier than the value falls even additional.
It’s additionally not like the rich don’t have legitimate causes to be apprehensive about an incoming Harris administration. She plans to lift taxes on the wealthy, regulate companies and proceed Biden’s coverage of going after rich tax cheats. (And miss me with that, “Woe is me, I can barely get by on $400,000 in San Francisco,” bullshit. Discover ways to funds like the remainder of us, Richy Wealthy.) The nation and the individuals shall be higher off below the Harris administration, however even earlier than she has the possibility to do any of that, it wouldn’t be stunning to see millionaires and billionaires act just like the sky is falling as a result of they may not be capable of afford to outfit a brand new personal jet or bust unions and abuse staff with out penalties.
Because of this, it’s simple to think about a situation the place buyers need to distance themselves from Musk and put their cash into safer investments which can be much less more likely to be topic to elevated regulation. And but, when you get to that time, it actually turns into onerous to guess what occurs subsequent. Perhaps it’s potential that the board kicks Elon to the curb, goes again to being an everyday electrical automaker and offers up on pretending humanoid robots will really be helpful. Given the make-up of the present board, although, that appears about as doubtless as Musk getting precise jail time.
So what do you suppose? Will the inventory crash? Will or not it’s extra of a gradual burn? Will something occur to Musk? Does one other automaker swoop in and purchase Tesla? Will the corporate nonetheless exist in 4 years? Will Musk clear up autonomy and switch his robotaxis right into a multi-trillion-dollar goldmine? Just about any reply is simply as legitimate as another as a result of there’s no option to predict the longer term. At this level, whether or not Harris or Trump wins might as nicely be a coin-flip, so when you haven’t voted already, make double rattling positive you try this. The very last thing this nation wants is Elon ready of energy in a second Trump administration.
