The second quarter of 2024 introduced a major lower in hydrogen gas cell automobile gross sales in the USA. By that, we imply in California, the place the series-produced fashions can be found.
In keeping with the Hydrogen Gas Cell Partnership’s knowledge, solely 99 new hydrogen gas cell vehicles (FCV or FCEV) have been bought within the U.S. in Q2. It is a 91% year-over-year decline and the bottom degree since This fall 2015 when the hydrogen area of interest was in its infancy.
Hydrogen gas cell vehicles wrestle to promote
Hydrogen gas cell vehicles wrestle to draw prospects. There are just a few fashions accessible in California, and the refueling infrastructure is proscribed. On high of that comes not essentially aggressive car and refueling prices.
The Hydrogen Gas Cell Partnership’s FCVs gross sales knowledge comes from Baum and Associates and is predicated on gross sales to retail and fleet prospects.
In relation to FCV fashions, there are solely two proper now and they’re each declining. The Toyota Mirai is the first one with 73 gross sales in Q2, down 93% year-over-year. The Hyundai Nexo gross sales amounted to 26 models in Q2, down 35% year-over-year.
Within the second half of the 12 months, Honda will re-join the hydrogen area of interest with its 2025 Honda CR-V e FCEV mannequin with plug-in functionality. Nevertheless, it can be accessible for lease solely and on a restricted scale of “north of 300 models” per 12 months. It implies that the introduction of the hydrogen-fueled CR-V is not going to change the general FCV image.
Hydrogen automobile gross sales in Q2 2024 (YOY change):
Hydrogen gross sales reported by the producers in Q2’2024 (YOY change):
- Toyota Mirai: 73 (down 93%)
- Hyundai Nexo: 26 (down 35%)
Within the first half of the 12 months, FCV gross sales amounted to 322 models and have been 82% decrease than a 12 months in the past.
Hydrogen automobile gross sales in Q1-Q2’2024 (YOY change):
Hydrogen gross sales reported by the producers in Q1-Q2’2024 (YOY change):
- Toyota Mirai: 245 (down 86%)
- Hyundai Nexo: 77 (down 27%)
For reference, in 2023, 2,978 new hydrogen vehicles have been bought (the numbers have been up to date in comparison with the earlier report), some 10% greater than in 2022.
It is exhausting to be optimistic concerning the hydrogen gas cell vehicles. The supply of automobiles and refueling infrastructure stays restricted. On high of that, excessive costs of hydrogen make driving costly. There are additionally slim to no benefits concerning the vary or refueling time versus the quick charging of contemporary EVs. Hydrogen vehicles are also inefficient in comparison with battery-electric automobiles.
The FCV area of interest appears to be disappearing. It seems to us that the window of alternative for FCVs closed when EVs have been strengthened by long-range variations and promising quick charging options of as much as 80% state-of-charge in lower than 20 minutes.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk not too long ago famous, by means of a separate hydrogen-related dialogue on X, that “Hydrogen is foolish for vehicles and solely barely smart for rockets, the place the payload is ~1000 occasions extra useful.”
The general cumulative gross sales of FCVs within the U.S. exceeded 18,000 as of the top of the quarter. This quantity contains over 14,000 Toyota Mirai, which accounts for nearly 79% of all FCVs bought.
As of July 3, 2024, the variety of open retail hydrogen stations in California stood at 54 (one lower than in April):
- Open – Retail: 54 (down 1)
- Open – Legacy Retail: 0
- Presently Unavailable: 7 (up 1)
- In Development: 2
- In Allowing: 18
- Proposed: 4
- Complete (Mild Responsibility): 85 (down from 90 in April and 97 in January)
See the total checklist of hydrogen infrastructure right here.
A fast calculation reveals there are 338 vehicles per station based mostly on cumulative gross sales divided by the variety of open retail stations. Though it is really much less because of the early vehicles which have been faraway from service.
