In Abu Dhabi, a problem harking back to previous occasions takes place, with two of probably the most profitable groups in System 1 as soon as once more battling for the world title. McLaren begins with the calm of a staff managing a 21-point lead, whereas Ferrari is pressured to attain a double podium, hoping that the rivals from Woking don’t get too shut. The Scuderia finds motivation within the warmth and the tires, but additionally clings to assist from Max Verstappen.
“On paper, we’re in all probability in a greater place for varied components, together with temperatures and the structure of the monitor,” says Frederic Vasseur, simply days earlier than the decisive race. Abu Dhabi presents itself as a extra ‘impartial’ circuit in comparison with the final two, with Las Vegas suiting Ferrari’s traits extra, whereas Qatar performed to McLaren’s strengths. The Yas Marina circuit options some sluggish, 90-degree corners, corresponding to corners 12, 16, or the 6-7 chicane, that are favored by a Ferrari with wonderful mechanical grip and good traction from low speeds. However, corners of medium velocity and lengthy turns, corresponding to 5 or the double 13-14, in addition to the lengthy and quick nook 9, are extra suited to McLaren’s preferences.
Abu Dhabi can also be notable for its lengthy straights, which is able to penalize much less highly effective energy items nearing the top of their lifespan. General, the monitor requires a medium aerodynamic load setup, permitting McLaren to reintroduce their new and distinctive rear wing, which was first launched through the Brazilian Grand Prix. Ferrari, then again, is counting on the brand new ground that confirmed constructive leads to Qatar on Leclerc’s automobile, producing nice curiosity to see if the Scuderia can handle the logistical and monetary problem of bringing a second model of this ground to Carlos Sainz’s automobile.
The design of the circuit would be the start line, however the 2024 System 1 season has taught us that tires, asphalt, and environmental circumstances could make a good greater distinction. On this regard, Ferrari celebrates the return of the softer Pirelli tire compounds, C3, C4, and C5, that are the alternative of the more durable compounds utilized in Qatar, which Ferrari struggled with. The asphalt right here has better grip and, above all, extra abrasiveness in comparison with Lusail’s, rushing up tire hysteresis. In different phrases, the tires warmth up sooner as a result of better micro-deformations involved with the bottom, a course of that generates warmth. That is a side that, on paper, mitigates Ferrari’s difficulties in getting ready the tires for a flying lap.
In Abu Dhabi, qualifying and the race are held at night time, however the monitor temperatures ought to nonetheless exceed 30°C, a full 10°C greater than these recorded in Qatar. The window of operation for the automobiles shifts towards greater temperatures, a change that additionally favors Ferrari. Moreover, as already occurred in Lusail, the primary and third free apply classes happen earlier than sundown, with a subsequent cooling of the monitor for qualifying and the race. In Qatar, the ground-effect System 1 automobiles already confirmed excessive sensitivity to this issue, with monitor evolution tending to shift the stability towards the rear. In Abu Dhabi, the anticipated temperature drop is as a lot as 10°C, greater than double that skilled within the final race, presenting a further problem find the proper setup.
Each groups want an ideal execution of the weekend to be topped champions, beginning with the administration of qualifying. In 2023, the gaps have been extraordinarily slim, with 15 drivers inside four-tenths of a second, resulting in the stunning elimination of Carlos Sainz in Q1. Managing site visitors is essential, because the tight third sector tends to create lengthy queues, risking cooling down the tires of these making an attempt a flying lap, a state of affairs just like Monaco.
The race tempo, then again, is proscribed each by entrance tire put on and rear tire degradation, not significantly favoring Ferrari or McLaren. “Flip 9 is lengthy and high-speed, so it is going to be essential for entrance tire administration,” defined Simone Berra, Pirelli’s Chief Engineer, simply hours earlier than the beginning in 2023. “The important thing shall be managing overheating within the third sector, together with the exit from the 6-7 chicane that separates the 2 straights. Rear tire temperatures, if saved underneath management, could make the distinction in sustaining efficiency.”
The Qatar race was freed from the dreaded graining points, which, nevertheless, have been seen on the suitable entrance tire within the final race in Abu Dhabi. This subject is troubling McLaren, as Lando Norris lately commented: “On some tracks which might be extra rear-limited, these issues don’t seem, however we’ve at all times been one of many worst groups for entrance tire graining. When we’ve got it, we’re not the quickest, however as quickly because it goes away, the state of affairs adjustments.” One other variable is the variety of pit stops, with simulations predicting related race occasions between one or two stops. The technique could possibly be decided by site visitors or by somebody desperately making an attempt to combine up plans to attempt one thing completely different.
The end result of the world championship battle between Ferrari and McLaren will even depend upon the third events. Max Verstappen and Purple Bull stand out, with the potential to be aggressive, particularly on a flying lap and at the beginning, offered they’ll repeat the troublesome process of hitting the proper window for the RB20’s efficiency. Mercedes, in the meantime, begins barely behind after struggling in Qatar. The Silver Arrows face greater temperatures and a essential third sector for the rear tires, facets that don’t assist the W15. Nevertheless, the peerlessly levelled asphalt will permit the automobile to work in a low and stiff configuration, which fits Mercedes properly.
The willpower of the midfield groups shouldn’t be underestimated both, with Alpine, Haas, and Racing Bulls engaged in a fierce battle for sixth place within the constructors’ standings. As with Ferrari, the warmth and the monitor breathe new life right into a Haas that struggled within the Qatar corners, however the absence of bumps and undulations will assist Alpine as soon as once more decrease its trip top, highlighting the strengths of the automobile. All of the components for an thrilling present are there, however irrespective of the result, the Abu Dhabi race shall be a historic verdict.
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