Tesla has revealed its AI product/self-driving roadmap for the following few months, but it surely raises extra questions than it solutions.
Tesla official AI Roadmap with self-driving software program releases
September 2024
- v12.5.2 with ~3x improved miles between vital interventions
- v12.5.2 on AI3 laptop (unified fashions for AI3 and AI4)
- Really Good Summon
- Cybertruck Autopark
- Eye-tracking with sun shades
- Finish-to-Finish community on freeway
- Cybertruck FSD
October 2024
- Unpark, Park and Reverse in FSD
- v13 with ~6x improved miles between vital interventions
Q1 2025
- FSD in Europe (pending regulatory approval)
- FSD in China (pending regulatory approval)
Electrek’s Take
The principle downside is enchancment towards what? Tesla has all the time refused to launch FSD intervention knowledge so we wouldn’t even know if v12.5.2 can obtain a “3x enchancment in miles between vital intervention.”
As we beforehand reported, we do have some crowdsourced knowledge, and Elon Musk acknowledged it positively, so we’d as effectively use that since Tesla refuses to launch official knowledge.
For v12.4, the CEO stated that it should come with out steering wheel nag and it will likely be in a position to drive “5 to 10x extra miles per intervention“.
v12.4 by no means made it to a large launch and v12.5 was presupposed to go extensive launch final month and it solely made it to about 5% of the FSD fleet the final time I checked.
Now, as a substitute of a 5 to 10x improve on v12.4, which was a flop, he’s now speaking a couple of “~3x enchancment” this month with the discharge of v12.5.
Let’s evaluate the info up to now. Based mostly on the crowdsourced knowledge, the common of the v12.5.1 variations is 32 miles between disengagement and 128 miles between important disengagement.
This compares to 30 miles between disengagement and 189 miles between important disengagement for v12.3.6, which is the final FSD model that went into a large launch earlier this yr:
Understand that to attain Tesla’s promise of an unsupervised self-driving system, it might probably have to be at between 50,000 and 100,000 miles between important disengagement, aka 390x over the present knowledge.
Based mostly on Elon’s new timeline and in comparison with this knowledge, we ought to be at round ~400 miles between “vital interventions ” by the tip of the month.
The time period “vital interventions” can be problematic and raises questions.
The crowdsourced knowledge can be attempting to tell apart “important” disengagements and it is smart since many disengagements don’t have anything to do with the extent of security in FSD. Some disengagement are resulting from consolation and frustration on the driving force’s half.
With v12.5.1, a whole lot of the disengagement need to do with navigation errors and velocity. The previous, Tesla will definitely want to repair. The latter is extra problematic because it really affect the info.
Many FSD drivers complain that the most recent replace is drives extraordinarily gradual. This could assist with the efficiency and scale back important disengagement, but it surely is not going to assist total disengagement as many drivers simply develop pissed off, myself included, and take management of the car to start out driving at extra affordable speeds.
So sure, as per my headline, this roadmap brings extra questions than it solutions primarily resulting from the truth that Tesla refuses to launch intervention knowledge and but, it makes use of will increase within the metric to trace progress.
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